May 14, 2015

Is There a Mathematical Advantage in Winning a Game If You Serve First?

No.

I guess I should explain. Some believe that serving first is a mathematical advantage in winning a game, since it means you will sometimes serve more than an opponent in a game. For example, suppose you serve first, and win 11-7. At that point you will have served ten times, your opponent eight. So you won because you served first? No!!! Even if your opponent had the two missing serves, and even if he happened to win both points (the odds are against it), you still would have won 11-9. Mathematically, serving first means you have a better chance of winning by a larger margin (or keeping it closer when you lose), but it makes zero difference mathematically in who wins.

Here's another way of looking at it. A game to 11 is really a best of 20, where we go to deuce if it reaches 10-all. In the case of deuce, you alternate serves, and both players have served ten times before that, so there's no mathematical advantage there to serving first. If it doesn't go to deuce, it means that one of the players scored 11 points within the first 20 points - it just so happens that in our scoring system, we stop the game as soon as someone reaches 11, and so don't play out the entire 20 points. If we did, to use the example above, then both players would serve ten times, and it might change the final score, but no matter how you work it, the player who scored 11 points first is going to win that game, even if the other player were given his missing serves.

In the example above, if the loser were to win both points on his missing two serves, he'd still lose 11-9. If he split the two points, he'd lose 12-8. He might even lose both of them, and lose 13-7.

So there is no mathematical advantage to serving first as far as winning a game. However, there is a rare mathematical advantage in tie-breaking. If you are in a round robin group and involved in a tie of three or more players, and if you are all tied in matches and games, it goes to points. In that rare case, there might be an advantage to serving first as it might give you a one or point advantage since you'd be serving first in three of the potentially five games.

But there are other things to take into consideration, some of them psychological, which I wrote about in my article, Should You Choose Serve, Receive, or Side at the Start of a Match? (Personally, I always give the serve away, except occasionally when playing someone who very badly wants to serve first.) 

Arm Tendonitis

The arm has taken a turn for the worse. I blogged about this briefly yesterday. Last night I had to cancel one private session, bring in Coach Raghu to hit for me in another, and in the afterschool program (where I usually mix in multiball and live play) had to use the robot only. I'm not going to be hitting any balls anytime soon. The problem in the arm, tendonitis, is an old one I had in the early 1980s, but went away mostly for thirty years. Sometime this morning I plan to make an appointment with a physical therapist, though I have a feeling they are going to test it, and say, "Yep, you've got tendonitis. You need to rest it, and then exercise it in this way." They'll then demonstrate the exact same exercises I learned 30 years ago, which I recently started up again.

I think the problem is that the arm seemed 90% healed this past week, and I was coaching almost normally. I was fine as long as I avoiding excessive forehand looping, forehand pendulum serves, and feeding backspin in multiball. Alas, right now it hurts just to pick up a racket. I've already hired Raghu and Josh Tran to feed multiball in my various group sessions, including one tonight.

Canadian Junior and Cadet Open

It ends today in Markham, Canada, May 11-14. Here's the ITTF home page for the event (lots of articles and results), and here's the USATT site, which includes a link to livestreaming. It was all-USA finals in all four team events - junior boys and girls, cadet boys and girls.

Learn from the Best: MH Table Tennis' Pro Tip Blog

Here's the new page. "A couple of years ago I trialed an idea of introducing small tips from professional players linked to small articles which included my own ideas also. I began the Pro Tip Blog. Unfortunately I never followed through with it...until now!"

Failure: Why It's Actually Good for Your Young Athlete

Here's the article from Sporting Kid Live.

Stay at Caesars Palace or The LINQ and Get a Free Event

Here's the USATT article about the upcoming U.S. Open in Las Vegas, July 6-11.

Reduce Recently Imposed Table Tennis Fees

Here's the petition started by USATT Hall of Famer George Brathwaite. He needs only 100 signatures! The Roosevelt Operating Corporation has begun charging non-residents a fee for playing at the Sports Park facility, and he's out to stop it.

Support Navin Kumar in His Mission to Win Gold

Here's the article. He's a student of mine - but with my arm injuries, I haven't been able to work with him that much recently.

Table Tennis Wants Olympic Mixed Doubles or Mixed Team Event

Here's the article from Fox Sports.

Ping Pong Therapy and the Alzheimer’s and Dementia Fight

Here's the article with links from Table Tennis Nation.

The Best Shot in Table Tennis

Here's the new highlights music video (4:34).

Table Tennis Doubles Best

Here's the new highlights music video (3:43) that features doubles.

40 Seconds of Ma Long and Xu Xin Goofing Off

Here's the video. (Ma Long in Yellow.)

Amazing 41-shot Rally Between Segun Toriola and Gao Ning

Here's the video (68 sec).

Nice Picture of Noki Niwa Stretching for Ball

Here's the picture from the ITTF - click on the picture to see a whole series of interesting ones.

Child Knee Pong

Here's the video (41 sec) - pretty impressive!

"I Don't Like the Looks of This"

Here's the Frank and Ernest table tennis cartoon.

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